What will fashion look like after the pandemic?
I would like to preface by saying that it has been a difficult time for many of us. My deep condolences go to people who lost their loved ones to the virus, mental illnesses, massive shootings, and police brutality in the United States. The pandemic has revealed issues that were going on for years but were ignored. The fashion industry itself is an ineffective system in which unpaid workers, overproduction, and lack of transparency co-exist. I am hopeful that we all take this time as an opportunity to reflect and change for the better.
We are living in a historic moment. The COVID-19 virus has changed the world we knew forever. Fashion was one of the main industries negatively affected by the lockdowns. Last year in my research about the application of artificial intelligence in marketing, I came to the conclusion that physical stores still played an important role in buying decisions. My finding could no longer be applied to the current environment. The companies with brick-and-mortar stores were at the disadvantage. Retailers with established e-commerce and direct-to-consumer business models pivoted quicker.
It will take several years for retail to recover. What will fashion look like once recovered or adapted to the new reality? Modeliere is projecting two scenarios on how the industry will evolve.
Ideal Scenario
The industry will adopt a slower fashion cycle with two main collections per year. For instance, Gucci announced that it would reduce the number of collections to 2. An open letter to the industry professional was signed by many designers and retailers. Why is it important? First of all, the amount of waste that each piece of garment produces is deadly for our planet. One T-shirt, for example, consumes 2700 liters of water. Imagine the amount of waste from a trench coat or a pair of jeans. Secondly, the bigger fashion houses have a major influence on the industry compared to smaller brands. There are a lot of independent designers that produce clothing in a sustainable way, however, they don’t have the scale of well-known fast-fashion retailers and luxury conglomerates.
Consumers will vote with their money by buying from sustainable fashion brands. While the popularity of vintage clothing and social sharing is growing, oftentimes apparel is still treated as disposable. Buying a sustainable piece of clothing requires a lot of research, something not readily available to the consumer. Overconsumption is highly promoted on social media with endless buying habits and desire for instant gratification, retail therapy, and similar behaviors.
The craft of fashion will return. The quality of clothing and accessories has dramatically decreased at all price points from the high end to the mass market. The apparel is not designed to be worn repeatedly, the shoes last one to two seasons. Companies look for ways to maximize profits by reducing production costs. These changes are not visible to a consumer at first sight. However, most of the time, when the product is compared to the same item produced 10 years ago, there is a major difference in the quality of the materials and construction.
All these projections would be the ideal scenario and would take a lot of time and other forces to become a reality. Fashion as an industry is a direct reflection of what is going on in the world. A realistic scenario is proposed to see what may happen:
Realistic Scenario
Fast fashion companies will not reduce production speed. There will be fewer left, however, those dominating the market will become even stronger. Next, the sustainable lines from these brands will create an illusion that the company really cares about the environment. Higher-end brands will either stick to the six-season cycle with smaller production batches or follow two-season collections by dropping parts of the collection every two months.
The consumers will be buying clothing that says sustainable on the label to satisfy the social responsibility aspect. Smaller groups of people will do more research and stick to brands that are truly sustainable. There is a steady increase in shopping for pre-owned clothing and consumer-to-consumer markets. The shift towards conscious consumption will take a longer time.
There have been many newer brands that promote the craft by producing limited edition or made-to-order pieces. Unfortunately, it is not feasible on a larger scale. In order for a style to become a trend, it is necessary for it to be widely popular and accessible to the consumer. What usually happens is that the trend is replicated by other companies, which gain the majority of the profit. Finally, with the continued increasing price of raw goods, production costs, and transportation, major fashion retailers will need to decrease the costs even lower or increase the retail prices.
Creative side
In addition to the business aspects, it is interesting to see what clothing will look like. According to Tom Ford, after the Spanish flu, there were had roaring 20’s. There is a possibility that fashion will go back to lush, frivolous, and fun. No wonder the shoes from Amina Muaddi have been in high demand. People are tired of sitting at home and wearing casual clothes. It will be reflected in fun colors, embroidery, paillettes, and glitter. WGSN in partnership with Coloro announced the color of the year 2022, which is Orchid Flower.
There is also a continued trend of fashion moving to casualization. The leading athleisure brand Lululemon did not lose its position in the industry. Work from home is extended until at least the fall of 2021 for many office workers. The workwear will become more comfortable and less restraining. High-tech materials will perform similarly to athletics and be easy to care for. PPE, antibacterial, tech-driven, designed to fit modern devices.
While still in the pandemic, it is challenging to gauge the full effect that it has on the industry. The projections will take 5 years on average to fulfill if the situation improves next year.
Stay safe,
Modeliere
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