The secret behind trends – forecasting
Hello friends,
In case you missed me last week, I have decided to switch to a biweekly posting schedule for the time being. The quality of the content that I share with you is more important to me than the quantity. There is a lot happening in the industry, so I pick the topics that are not highlighted very well. I promised a while back to write about trend forecasting. Even though information about it is widely available, most people do not know how trends are shaped. So let’s get started.
Have you ever noticed that fashion houses present similar looks on the runway?
There are usually 3-4 themes in one season that meet the needs of different demographics. For example, there could be feminine/romantic style, gothic/avant-garde, sport-chic, and pop. It is not a coincidence. 6+ months before the collections are prepared, design teams consult with the trend forecasting agencies (more on this below). In addition, creative directors of the major fashion brands attend exhibits and travel to get inspiration for the next seasons. Alber Elbaz said designers are like fishermen who need to catch the wind of change.
But where do trends really come from?
They say that fashion does not exist in a vacuum. Every social, political, economic movement affects how people dress. Very often I hear people say that they find the clothes on the runway strange. I usually explain that these trends will be in fashion in 2-3 years. In addition, these clothes are a reflection of what is going on now. For example, one of the reasons why Vetements and streetwear became popular was people's migration. Demna Gvasalia took inspiration from “perestroika” in post-Soviet Republics. The country that people were living in collapsed, so they had to adapt. The same goes for emigrants, who lost their homes or chose to be world citizens.
Fashion as an art form is also influenced by music, film, sculpture, and fine arts. I haven’t been to the movies in two years, I recently went to see Cruella. If you haven’t, I can’t recommend enough! It resonated with me on several levels as a designer and huge fan of rock fashion variations. I predict that this Halloween season, Cruella’s looks are going to be the most popular costumes. In addition, punk rock style will make a comeback very soon. The movie was a celebration of 70’s British fashion. Think Vivienne Westwood, BodyMap, Alexander McQueen, leather, plaids, tulle, pins, studs, chains, how fun!
However, a majority of trends are shaped by the trend forecasting agencies such as Fashion Snoops, WGSN (former Stylesight), Peclers, and more. They predict trends 2-4 seasons ahead by analyzing what is going on in the world. These agencies employ agents all over the world who take pictures of streetwear, attend trade shows, go to galleries, and music festivals. Each agent is responsible for different categories such as colors, fabrics, tops, dresses, sneakers, you name it. All this data is collected, then the agencies process it and come up with trends for the next two years. In the end, they generate reports which are purchased by the apparel companies. These reports have detailed information on what collars or sleeves will be popular next year. Most of the fashion houses from high-end to fast fashion use this service.
You can tell how much work needs to be done in order to create accurate reports. Therefore these services are usually quite expensive. The success of the brand depends on the salability of the garment or accessory, therefore accuracy is very important. From my experience, these reports are true to life. They definitely need to be adjusted to your specific brand, price point, and target market. Product life cycle should be considered as well. For instance, if you are targeting the early adopters, they are ready to pay more, take risks and try new designs. Even though fashion is quite fast, for the general population, it takes 2-3 years to switch from familiar to something new. Consumer readiness plays a significant role here. It happens that the style is introduced too early and does not sell.
If you have been reading my blog from the beginning, you know that I am all about new technology. I am sure that artificial intelligence (AI) makes trend forecasting much easier. If we take IBM Watson as an example, which assisted in creating a collection by fashion designer Jason Gretch. It was able to process 10 years of fashion and select the colors for Gretch to choose from. Based on my research, the main challenge with AI is that it is mostly retrospective and dependable on data. But if the computers are supplied with high standard and unbiased data, then they can process it fast and identify trends quickly with more precision.
This article would not be complete if we fail to mention social media influencers. Before the invention of social media, fashion was a closed community. A small group of buyers and fashion editors from all over the world was responsible for choosing the styles they thought would be popular. It all changed when Instagram, YouTube, and others appeared. Now every person which has enough following from micro to macro can influence other people into purchasing clothes. It definitely contributed to the democratization of fashion similar to fast fashion. At the same time, there is a fine line between sponsored content and genuine product recommendation.
Trend forecasting is a very interesting subject to discuss. There is an argument that fashion has become dependent on agencies and lacks creativity. I believe there are many talented designers and emerging brands out there that are shaping the industry. One of my next articles will be on brands to watch. So make sure to subscribe.
Enjoy the summer,
Modeliere